UPDATE: Apparently, Delegate Math is Hard

As you folks should know by now, I have not now, nor will I ever, demand that Bernie Sanders drop out of this primary race. He’s been a positive influence and a lot of his ideas are solid and will go great in the Democratic platform.

wizardbehindcurtainThat said, he’s lost the nomination. Short of a disaster, he has not won this nomination. Therefore, people like Shaun King need to put away their Hillary-hate and stop outright lying to people. The biggest Bernie supporters are still holding out hope that he can somehow pull it out, and shit like this article from today’s New York Daily News don’t help.  This is how Shaun King starts things off.

Hillary Clinton cannot and will not win the Democratic nomination before the Democratic Convention this July.

I’m not being salty. This isn’t my opinion. I’m not being biased for Bernie.

This is 4th grade math.

When she and Bernie Sanders get to the convention, the only possible way she can cross the necessary threshold of 2,383 delegates is for the party elite, also known as superdelegates, to put her there. There are a total of 4,766 Democratic delegates available — 4,051 of them are pledged, 715 are superdelegates. The winning candidate needs 2,383 votes to win. Until then, we don’t have a nominee. Period.

And it gets worse. The entire article is full of math fails. Apparently, King flunked “4th grade math,” and still would.

MathIt’s time for Shaun King to tell his Bernie Stan friends the truth. Bernie’s only path to the nomination is to hope for an indictment or worse, which ain’t happening. There is no mathematical way Hillary doesn’t get a delegate majority by June 8, unless Bernie can win 80% or more in both California and New Jersey.

If you DO count super delegates, Clinton needs 218 delegates to hit 2,383. If she gets 50% in California, she will have more than that. That’s just a fact. And that assumes she gets zero delegates in the four May primaries that come before that, which is kind of silly.

But King wins a prize for GOP-level deception with his math regarding the elimination of super delegates. If you don’t count super delegates, then you have to take super delegates out of the mix altogether; you don’t get to not count them and then claim she still needs 2,383 to win. See what he did there? If there were no super delegates, she would only need 2,025 pledged delegates to win the nomination. With her current pledged delegate total of 1,645, that means she would need 380 delegates, which she probably won’t get in California alone, but if she gets half the delegates in the four states before California and then gets half in California, she wins.  See? Math is FUN!

The converse of this equation is that, even without counting super delegates, Bernie needs 707 more delegates, which would require him to get about 70% of the vote in all remaining states. Contrary to what some have said, Bernie is not due for a “winning streak.” In fact, one of the May primaries is Kentucky, which he will probably lose badly, and he’s not favored in any other state except perhaps Oregon and there, he’s not favored by much. And let’s be real; if he splits the delegates in California and New Jersey evenly, that would be considered a huge win for him.

Let’s be clear. There is no metric by which Bernie Sanders can even make a case for flipping more than a dozen super delegates. Yes, he’s won 17 states, but by the time this is over, Clinton will have won almost twice as many and the overwhelming number of primaries. Most of Bernie’s wins have been in caucus states. If you want to complain about disenfranchisement, talk about caucuses. What if I’m in Las Vegas and I have to work at 11 a.m. on a Saturday (who can imagine, right?) and can’t caucus? Where’s my voice? If many of those caucuses were primaries, Bernie might have a lot fewer delegates than he has, so in a way, he’s lucky.

And one more thing; the states Hillary has won largely represent the Democratic Party, which is not mostly white liberals. Sorry.

Also, Shaun King and the Bernie people who fawn all over this guy need to make friends with Democrats if they actually want this “movement” they’ve created to go beyond this election cycle. If Bernie contests the convention while trailing in total vote count by as much as to 3 million, Bernie Stans can kiss their “revolution” goodbye.

UPDATE: (May 11, 2016): Before yesterday’s West Virginia primary, Bernie needed to win at least 80% of the vote to win enough delegates to catch up. After his “win” yesterday, he still needs more than 80% of the vote to just catch up.

Many Bernie Stans are still complaining because “the media” is counting super delegates, even though they technically don’t vote until the convention, so let’s update the results with JUST the pledged delegate count.

ruby slippersAgain, to remind you, if you are not going to count super delegates, then the majority of pledged delegates is 2,025, NOT 2,383. As of right now, Hillary Clinton has 1,716 pledged delegates, which means she needs 309 delegates to get a majority of pledged delegates. Bernie Sanders needs 595 to get that. Between now and June 7, which is the last Super Tuesday of this primary season, there are four more primaries with 183 delegates at stake. He would have to win 120 of those to even make a dent in her 286 pledged delegate lead and not only is that not likely, but it wouldn’t be much of a dent. She would still have a 225 delegate lead, even then.

Most likely, they will split them or, if he does well in Kentucky and Oregon, he will end up with 100. The problem is, that means she will only need about 225 delegates going into June 7, and he would still need 495. With 475 pledged delegates at stake in California, if she gets 40% of the vote, she wins. And there are another 176 at stake in New Jersey the same day, so even if she only manages, say, 30% in California, if she gets more than 30% in New Jersey, she still has the majority.

Again, this is all using pledged delegates. Not only is it likely that she will win a majority of pledged delegates, it is also likely she’ll end up with the 2,383 majority even without super delegates and, even if she doesn’t reach that magic number, she’ll be within 100 of it. Meanwhile, it is virtually impossible for Bernie Sanders to get the 2025 pledged delegate majority that he would need to justify turning a lot of super delegates to his side and it is absolutely impossible for him to get to 2,383 without at least two-thirds of super delegates.

Once again, super delegates will not make the difference this primary season. Hillary won where she needed to and she’s been able to conserve funds for her general election campaign by limiting her campaigning other places. This is a smart campaign. Bernie ran a valiant campaign, but he was never going to win. He did, however, influence the debate, which was supposedly the whole idea, anyway.

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