It is definitely silly season when it comes to politics. I’m actually tired to hearing that Democrats will have a difficult time beating Trump later this year. This is being told to me by people who claim to be political junkies or “activists,” but they have to know better, for Chrissakes.
I’m not saying Trump has no chance. I[m not that stupid. However, if you are saying, or even implying, that Democrats have to do something “special” to make sure it happens, it makes me wonder what you’re paying attention to because it’s not reality.
Here is reality…
All Democrats have to do is to support Democrats for once. And by supporting Democrats, that means supporting candidate who hasn’t been brainwashed by the Cult of Donny. You may have your favorite Democrat, but that does not mean you have to tear down all other Democrats to lift up your favorite. Of course, that has never been the case. If you were a Bernie Stan in 2016, it was pure stupidity to think you had to tear down Hillary in service to Bernie. It was one of the key openings we gave Trump in his campaign to cheat for the win.
It’s still really stupid. Just because Bernie says what you want to hear, or Andrew Yang says all the right things, or if you’re paranoid to think that only Michael Bloomberg is the only one with the financial means to match Trump dollar-for-dollar, does not mean that it’s necessary to tear down other Democratic candidates. And yet, I amnestying seeing just those things happening again. I have been watching political lefties I once admired spend all of the past year ripping the hell out of Joe Biden, not based on his age, but by slamming him as a “centrist” and a “crook,” based on no actual evidence.
Thankfully, this year, I don’t think any of that will help Trump. First of all, which everything going Trump’s way in 2016, he really didn’t win. His election was a technicality, winning three key swing states by a total of less than 77,000 votes, which should have triggered recounts that didn’t happen. Those three states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – are no longer being run by crooked Republicans, so that is less likely to happen this time. And Democrats have momentum, for the first time in at least 40-50 years, based on the turnout for 2018, which was the highest mid-term turnout in a half century and which gave Democrats a gain of 40 seats in the House and kept their losses in the Senate to a minimum, even though they could easily have lost as many as 10 seats, if turnout had been even with past midterm elections.
This is the key to everything; turnout. If turnout is above that in 2016 and more in line with the number in 2008, it will be difficult for Democrats to lose, not just against Trump, but all the way down the line.
The only advantage Trump can be said to have right now comes with incumbency, but that is probably less of a factor than with most presidents because he’s just been so bad at the job. And that points to a disadvantage Trump has that seems to escape the notice of most “political junkies,” which is puzzling. He’s only popular with the far right Republican “base,” which amounts to a very small minority of voters. Only 23% of all voters identify as Republican, which means, even IF 90% of Republicans vote for the guy, he can count on 20.7% of all votes. Something tells me we can probably marshal enough votes from the other 79.3% of voters to win. He’s enormously popular with his base, but he’s extremely Unpopular with anyone else. And let’s face it, while his hard core cult us passionate as hell, almost no one wins an election based on passion points. You still need the numbers.
Trump has been horrible as president. He has never had high approvals, and he’s always been under water with regard to his disapprovals.
I just saw an article on Medium this morning in which the author claimed to have gained insight about Trump by attending a Trump Rally and declared that Democrats are not ready for 2020. I found it absurd in the extreme. She suggested we should start being nicer to the deplorables because of their passion, but I believe she is confusing “passion” with “insanity.”
We can beat insanity easily. We just have to be sane and understand that we can’t attack Democrats and also expect them to win. Other than that, just let turnout happen and stop playing to the cheaters. Remember, the far-right cares about one thing; “pissing off liberals.” If you stop being openly pissed off about everything, you strip them of their power.
We can beat Trump and do what our grandparents all did in 1932, and ban the GOP from the government until they can show some competence with regard to government. We just have to stop worrying and stay sane.