One of the more irritating conversations I seem to have been engaged in constantly this week is the intense worry many Democrats have with the polls. Why isn’t Obama farther ahead? so many of them ask. Then comes the worrying and hand-wringing about how close this election will be, and how we could be stuck with a President McCain for the next four years.
I’m here to tell you, and I will repeat this until Barack Obama does something to screw things up, which is very unlikely;
Barack Obama will win election in November, and will do so by a very comfortable margin, with well over 300 electoral votes.
So, why aren’t the polls reflecting this? you ask. Why is McCain still so close?
That’s easy; it’s not November 4. I mean, duh! People, please think a little before you give these polls any credence whatsoever. Polls have been wrong now for two election cycles; why would they suddenly be correct now?
Pollsters use phones to contact people. How many people do you know these days, who have a landline? And of those with a landline, how many of them don’t have caller ID? And how many of them answer calls from numbers they don’t recognize? How many of them will talk to a total stranger who calls and requests that they answer a few questions?
These are but a few of the obstacles that pollsters must overcome just to get a sampling. Therefore, when any polling organization even attempts to produce a "daily poll," please look on such a poll with skepticism; it has to be near impossible to even get a decent sample.
That’s not to say that other polls shouldn’t be looked upon skeptically, as well. It’s summer, so a lot of people are busy doing other things, and are not home to answer their phone. Most people rely on their cell phones now, and pollsters are largely forbidden from calling cell phones to conduct polls.
And as I said; this is August, and two factors are at work here. First off is the extremely late date for the two conventions. The political conventions are usually over and done right now, but they haven’t even started yet. That’s important to consider, because the Hillary issue hasn’t been completely resolved as yet. Fully 30% of Clinton supporters have not come on board for Obama as yet, so that will be reflected in the polls. I’ve talked to a lot of Clinton people, and I have to tell you; while most of them are very rational and reasonable, there is a contingent of them who qualify for loon status; some of them still hold out hope that something will happen, and their heroine will somehow wrest the nomination from that upstart, Obama.
What does all of this have to do with poll numbers? How about everything! People will not be engaged in the process, by and large, until the nominees are set and made official, and while it’s still kind of summer-like. And while 5-10% of the voting public still thinks Hillary has a chance to take the nomination, they’re going to do everything they can to undermine the Obama candidacy. If you’re a die-hard Hillary loon, and a pollster asks your preference between Obama and McCain, you’re going to say "McCain," just to "show" everyone that Obama can’t win.
Here’s the bottom line, folks. Four-fifths of the population thinks we’re on the wrong track politically. Three-quarters of the population wants an end to the Iraq occupation. The economy is in the shitter, people have been losing jobs left and right for eight years, and the current incarnation of the Republican Party has been thoroughly discredited. The ideological cretins don’t run the show anymore; this is not 2000 or 2004; it’s 2008; reform is on the agenda, and if you think a majority of the population thinks it can trust necessary reforms to a 72-year-old ex-POW with an anger management problem, you’re not living in the real world.
This is Obama’s election to lose; make no mistake about that. And he and his people are showing no signs that they plan to lose. If you look closely, his campaign is nearly the exact opposite of the Gore and Kerry campaigns.
Obama in November. Bet on it.