Super Tuesday Post-Mortem

Hillary2016-1A lot of people aren’t going to like this, but Hillary Clinton has all but won the Democratic nomination. That means you can stop dogging her now, faux “progressives.” And those I saw this morning who were complaining about Elizabeth Warren and blaming her for Bernie’s loss in Massachusetts, please stop. Not only would that have had no impact on the delegate count, but her endorsement wouldn’t have made that much difference to voters.

The race is Hillary’s to lose. Unless there’s an unforeseen lightning strike, she will face whoever emerges from the Klown Kar in the fall.

Yes, I know. Bernie won four states. That’s a great thing, sure. Good for him. But Hillary won more delegates, and that’s what matters. And it’s the way she won them that is so striking. Someone sent me a bunch of exit polls last night, and I was shocked. Among Democrats, in race after race, Bernie only won men (barely) and white people. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton won among women, Latinos and, especially, Black people.

I’d like to remind everyone that these are the constituencies that will win the election for Democrats in November. They are also the future. The days when white men run everything are over. The reason you are seeing the demise of the Republican Party so clearly right now is because that era is coming to a grinding halt. And not just for Republicans, right wingers and so-called “corporatists.” The same is true of liberals; we’re not exempt just because we’d like to think we’re better.

You see, Hillary didn’t just win the south; she absolutely destroyed Bernie in those states. We’re not just talking about a plurality, we’re talking about a tidal wave. The average margin Hillary won by in the states she won was around 35 points, whereas the average Bernie win was less than 10 points, except for his home state of Vermont. And the delegates are pledged proportionally, so if he is going to win the nomination, he has to start blowing her out and that isn’t happening. I don’t see him winning California or New York, and even Florida is unlikely, but unless he engineers a blowout in his favor in all of those states, he has no chance.

Ashamed GOPSo far, voting has been held in 15 states, and most of the “conventional wisdom” about her has been proven wrong. There is no “enthusiasm gap.” She received a hell of a lot more votes than Donald Drumpf on Tuesday. There is no “2008 hangover” among black voters; in most races where significant numbers of Black people voted, she actually received a higher percentage than Obama received that year. There also seems to be no problem with Latinos; although she won their votes by a lesser margin than Blacks the numbers were into the 60s and 70s. In the end, Hillary went from having a 250 delegate lead to having a lead of more than 600 delegates. And for the record, if you subtract the super delegates, she still has a delegate lead of about 200. That’s hard to make up without a lot of blowouts.

Once again, white liberals are not the “Democratic base.” Black people are. White liberals make up about 10% of Democrats these days, whereas Blacks make up about 20% of Democrats.* And in Alabama she won 93% of the black vote. In fact, in her worst performance, Oklahoma, she “only” won 71% and lost. She also ran away with the Latino vote in Texas, winning them by 42 percentage points.  This is another key part of the Democratic base and that level of support could give her an edge in the fall.

(*Imagine how well we would do as a COALITION with black voters, instead of constantly tilting at windmills and wasting our votes on 3rd party candidates with no chance of winning. Dare I dream?)

GOP VisionAnd I’d like to clear up something else I kept hearing today. No, it doesn’t matter that the states Clinton won were “states she will probably lose” in November. First of all, we should never, ever assume that Democrats will automatically lose any state, but more than that, we’re talking about a primary, which is different. Obama won a lot of states in 2008 that he didn’t win in the primary; there is no correlation between those concepts.

This doesn’t mean I think Bernie should drop out. He’s doing a great job at what he supposedly ran to do, which was to move the dialogue to the left. He needs to stay in and continue to speak and bring his message to the people. Now, though, let’s focus on the message first and stop trashing Hillary, since she will probably be the nominee.  Bernie hasn’t done that. In fact, in the end he will endorse her and work for her in the fall. I’m just asking that his followers be more like Bernie.

After eight years of the first black president, what’s wrong with eight more of the first woman president? Watch neocons’ heads explode! That’s always fun.

About Milt Shook

A writer with more than 45 years in the political game (and let's face it, it is a game). I am a liberal because facts have a liberal bias, and I really like facts. If you like facts, you'll like this blog. If not, you'll have a hard time.

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