A lot of what we hear from the right-wing is their certainty that Donald Trump will win another term as president. This, despite the fact that the numbers that matter do not favor that as a likelihood at all. This is the first president in history to never top 50% approvals in his first term, and in most head-to-head polls, he is well behind all of the potential Democratic nominees; he even loses to some Democrats with zero chance of being nominated.
Yet the Republican right-wing idiots seem very sure they will win. Listen closely; it’s all based on one singular issue; the economy. However, that’s also nuts because it’s based on the good economy, as proclaimed by none other than the chronic liar, Donald J. Trump. Yes, that’s right; the Trumpers’ primary ray of hope is an economy concocted by a “president” who has so far told a documented 16,241 lies during his first three years. (Source)
We know he’s lying about the economy because he simply doesn’t understand economics at all. For statistics, Trump relies almost entirely on the unemployment rate; a statistic he decried as “fake” when he was running for president he is now touting as “proof” that “his” economy is the “greatest ever.” Put simply, while Obama was president, the unemployment rate was a joke and the “real” unemployment was about 10 times the official rate, which would be above 40%, but now it’s dropped to 3.5% and it’s the greatest rate ever. It’s not even a case of, “was he lying then,m or is he lying now.” He’s always lying; he’s incapable of saying anything factual.
The economy just isn’t all that great. It’s resilient, to be sure, but it’s not “the greatest in our history.” For those of us who grew up in the 1960s, we know the current economy is way behind what Democrats built during the post-war era. There’s actually a reason why Trump is so keen on focusing our attention on the unemployment rate, on which a “president” has a small impact, at most, and the stock market, primarily the Dow, which presidents have nothing to do with. When you look at nearly every other economic factor – the ones that matter – it’s impossible not to see trouble.
For example, Trump likes to pretend he will bring back the fossil fuels sector, especially coal, even though the coal industry is all but dead. It is never coming back, either, as evidenced by the fact that General Motors, once again the largest carmaker in the US, after being left for dead by the Republican Party during the Great Recession of 2008, has made a spectacular and unprecedented push toward electric cars, and Tesla is showing signs of becoming a major player, with projections of 500,000 deliveries this year. The transition to alternative energy sources has been accelerating during Trump’s entire term so far, so the dependence on fossil fuels is finally waning, this time for good.
It also helps to take a look at the manufacturing sector, which Trump promised to bring back during his time as “president.” The manufacturing sector has been contracting for his entire term so far. Just yesterday, 3M announced that is was cutting 1,500 jobs, and it’s based on earnings, which were supposed to be soaring to extremely high levels. To be honest, the manufacturing slowdown is global in nature, but according to Trump, our economy is supposedly the envy of the entire world, so shouldn’t our manufacturing sector be growing?
It also means the unemployment numbers are probably less accurate than Trump thinks all of a sudden. I mean, manufacturing jobs tend to pay more than many other jobs, and if the sector continues to slow, manufacturers are unlikely to buy parts and facilities to prepare for the long run.
There is also Ford to look at for a clue. Ford was the only American car maker who didn’t need a bailout during the Great Recession, but their “luck” has been changing lately. Last September, Moody’s and S&P both downgraded the company’s credit rating; Moody’s dropped it to “junk” and S&P dropped it to BBB-, which is just slightly above “junk.” And Ford isn’t the only problem child; the aforementioned GM also saw a 15% drop in sales last year. Overall, manufacturers of industrial parts and business supplies are having a really hard time, which is a sign that the economy is struggling. We’re not in a recession quite yet, but Donny’s rosy scenario is near pure bullshit.
Donny also tends to ignore the plight of key companies like Boeing, who stopped production on its 737 Max airliners in December, after two crashes that killed a total of 346 passengers and their developers couldn’t get a bead on the cause of the problem or the solution, That shutdown will have a ripple effect on the entire economy, as thousands of companies who supply parts for the planes lose out. By the way, those companies include 3M.
The overall negative effect of huge manufacturing cutbacks as large as those involving Ford and Boeing make it difficult for many other companies to plan anything for the long term since the loss of jobs means a loss of income for many people, and that, in turn, means fewer consumers to buy the end product.
This is something Trump has never understood; he has no clue how all the various elements of the economy all work together. He thinks he can return the manufacturing sector to where it was before the 1970s, which is a joke; an even bigger joke than promising to bring back the coal industry.
If you’re counting on the “strong economy” to keep Donny afloat for another four years, you need to stop watching the right-wing news and join us in the reality-based community.