I won’t be one of those pundits who will state emphatically that there is no way that Donald Trump will ever become president. However, I can say confidently that he won’t win the general election. The only way Trump can become president is if PUBs (once again, Progressive Unicorn Brigade) and the professional left once again demonstrate their uncanny ability to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.
Republicans don’t win elections, we lose them. Bush didn’t win in either 2000 or 2004 and Democrats should have won in a rout in 2010 and 2014. Hell; as far as I’m concerned, the GOP was in the toilet in the post-war era and that’s where they should have stayed. Democrats should have a supermajority in Congress by now and control at least 35 state Houses. As you know if you’ve been reading this blog for a while, I’ve been saying for years that PUBs have a unique ability to cheat themselves out of any advantage we may have to get anything progressive done. That would be okay if they were the only people affected, but we all know it isn’t. This has to change.
Yes, electing Trump would be a disaster. Thankfully, the system is set up in a way that makes it unlikely for him to do anything too Hitler-like, but for Chrissakes, folks, we just managed to survive eight years of George W. Bush. We have had eight years of leadership bliss, which we ourselves severely blew in 2010 and 2014.
We have a unique opportunity to reverse our fortunes with this election. We are actually running against a major political party that is disintegrating before our eyes. Trump should have absolutely no chance whatsoever and we have to make sure we don’t just beat him, but that we make everyone understand that Trump embodies everything the GOP stands for and reject that entire ideology once and for all. This is potentially the weakest major party candidate in our history and we are suckers if we don’t use that to create a progressive/Democratic Party coalition and take advantage of it.
Donald Trump will have no chance of winning the election this year. And here is why:
Women make up 53% of voters and they hate Drumpf
Why wouldn’t they? Drumpf has a history of misogyny that makes him hard to support if you have women in your life you care about. Thankfully, Conner Eldridge, a Democrat running for the Senate in Arkansas has highlighted a few of the worst of Drumpf’s misogyny over the years:
That’s certainly a great start, but to say it’s the tip of the iceberg is to understate things by a factor of ten. In fact, just this morning, there’s a piece in New York Times Magazine, explaining how Trump treats women in private. Let’s just say, it won’t endear him to women or anyone who has a women in his life.
Trump can’t “pivot.”
One thing that everyone in the GOP knows is that every Republican presidential candidate who appeals to their crazy base enough to win the Republican Party nomination has to pivot away from crazy to even have a chance in the general election. The only problem is, it’s gotten harder in recent years, as recording devices have become more sophisticated and the GOP base has become crazier. Think about it; the last Republican to actually win a presidential race outright was George H. W. Bush in 1988. Clinton won both of his races and Obama both of his, and it was Naderites trashing Gore and Kerry who made those races close enough to steal.
John McCain and Mitt Romney were relatively moderate Republicans at one time, and they had to adopt most of the crazy shit just to have a chance at the nomination and, even with their relatively moderate records, they couldn’t walk away from the crazy they expressed in the primaries. Now, if McCain and Romney couldn’t do it, how the hell is a birther with a long public record of saying some of the nastiest things that have ever been expressed by a major party candidate. There is no way he can possibly switch to the middle in the general election and get anyone to believe it, especially if we progressives refuse to allow it.
Trump has no political skills.
I know a lot of you think being a bullshit artist is a critical skill for a politician, but it’s not. You have to be articulate and you have to at least sound as if you’re competent to do the job. The only reason Trump won the nomination is because the current Republican Party is dominated by racists and the most abominable people in our political system. I mean, did you hear how Trump devised his campaign? He apparently had a couple of advisors listen to right wing talk radio, and that’s how he came up with his key primary planks.
What you have in Trump is an unsophisticated boob with zero to no people skills, relatively modest education and little to no common sense. I mean, have you seen pictures of his penthouse in Trump Tower? It’s three floors of some of the gaudiest crap anywhere. It’s what many people in trailer parks would “ooh” and “ahh” as “rich.” Seriously, go take a look here.
And while all politicians need an ego to run for office, especially president, a narcissist will always have a hard time getting votes. Ask Ross Perot and Carly Fiorina about that, or maybe even ask Arianna Huffington about her late husband. And in those few instances when a narcissist manages to get elected, they’re usually out on their asses after a term and they leave behind a nasty mess. Think Jesse Ventur and Arnold Schwarzenegger, for starters. Most voters like confident politicians, but they’re not fond of cocky, let alone narcissistic, ones.
Even Most Republicans hate Trump
The RNC changed the primary rules this year because they were tired of idiots taking the lead at various times during primary season. So they made most primaries “winner take all” and put “thresholds” on most of the others. Then, they did nothing when 17 Klowns ran for president as a Republican. Trump won most of the early primaries and the bulk of the delegates, with roughly one-third of the vote, which means, in most primaries two-thirds of Republicans did NOT vote for Trump. In fact, even now, with the long string of states he’s won, he still only has about 40% of the total Republican vote. Even though he will set the record for most total primary votes this year, there is little to no chance that, in the end, he will have a majority of votes.
I still think there’s a chance the RNC can figure out a way to deny him the nomination and their efforts to find a suitable independent to run for what they imagine is the “real Republican” vote may happen, too. It may be the only way to salvage down-ticket races.
In the meantime, we progressives have a tremendous chance to make up for our political ineptitude in recent decades and return the government to the Democratic Party, which is the only way to move it to the left. You elect them, join them and become part of their base and you make it your mission to make the GOP the enemy, so that they have no choice but to reform. That will take the conservatives in the Democratic Party and move them back to the GOP and force their right wing back to the fringes.
Trump is absolute proof that there is no similarity between Democrats and Republicans these days. He can’t win. Only we can lose. This blog is going to spend even more time proving that the Republican ideology is poison and it will take on any so-called “progressives” who try to claim the parties are in any way the same. We’re taking on Trump and the GOP and you can either join us or get stomped along with them. Your choice.
In the meantime, watch this brilliant, sensitive man explain the problems with Trump.